St. Louis investors win by matching corridor, jurisdiction, and masonry scope to math that survives city occupancy inspection, county municipal permits, and 100-year-old brick — not by importing Kansas City or county solds onto South City doubles.
This guide ranks three STL corridors in Midwest batch M6. Rankings reflect risk-adjusted yield and flip margin, not Zillow momentum.
For financing: fix and flip loans Missouri · hard money lenders St. Louis · Missouri DSCR.
How we score neighborhoods
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition basis | 25% | Margin room after rehab |
| Rehab efficiency | 20% | Masonry/mechanical vs. ARV lift |
| Buyer / rent demand | 25% | O-O resale or lease-up depth |
| Yield or flip margin | 20% | Net spread or gross cap |
| Jurisdiction drag | 10% | Occupancy permits, city/county line, earnings tax |
Master ranking — St. Louis 2026
| Rank | Corridor | Composite | Best profile | Typical hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bevo Mill | 8.3 | Brick double BRRRR → MO DSCR | 8–12 mo |
| 2 | Tower Grove South | 7.8 | Four-square O-O flip | 8–11 mo |
| 3 | North County | 7.4 | SFR yield BRRRR | 6–10 mo |
Watch list: Dutchtown (deeper basis, softer blocks — walk proof doubles), Princeton Heights (steady bungalow O-O exits at mid-premium basis).
Tier 1: Highest yield-on-cost
1. Bevo Mill — composite 8.3
| Metric | Double BRRRR | Bungalow flip |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition | $60K–$140K | $70K–$130K |
| Rehab | $40K–$75K | $35K–$60K |
| All-in | $100K–$215K | $105K–$190K |
| ARV / rent | $140K–$215K; $1,750–$2,400/mo | $150K–$210K resale |
| Gross cap (est.) | 9%–12% | 13%–19% ROI flip |
Why #1: Legal two-family brick at city-side basis with block stability the deeper South Broadway corridors lack. The metro’s strongest repeatable stack.
Caution: Masonry bid before LOI — tuckpointing, parapet, box gutters. See Bevo Mill guide.
2. Tower Grove South — composite 7.8
| Metric | Four-square O-O | Two-family hold |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition | $120K–$220K | $130K–$210K |
| Rehab | $50K–$90K | $55K–$95K |
| All-in | $170K–$310K | $185K–$305K |
| ARV / rent | $230K–$340K | $250K–$330K; $2,300–$3,000/mo |
| Net margin (flip est.) | 9%–14% ROI | DSCR at ~71% LTV |
Edge: Park adjacency and the Morganford spine support the strongest finished-product exit in South City. Historic-district parcels can stack Missouri’s 25% rehab credit on qualifying scopes.
Caution: Rewire + HVAC before cosmetics — $22K–$40K combined. Rental-grade finish underprices this exit. See TGS guide.
3. North County (Ferguson–Florissant) — composite 7.4
| Metric | SFR BRRRR | Ranch flip |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition | $50K–$115K | $75K–$115K |
| Rehab | $30K–$60K | $30K–$60K |
| All-in | $80K–$175K | $105K–$175K |
| ARV / rent | $110K–$175K; $1,000–$1,350/mo | $130K–$175K FHA-buyer resale |
| Gross cap (est.) | 10%–13% | 10%–15% ROI flip |
Edge: The metro’s best rent-to-price math and the most forgiving entry basis.
Caution: Every municipality inspects re-occupancy on its own checklist — sequence the permit at rough-in or eat 30–60 days of IO. See North County guide.
City/county comp discipline
- The 1876 line is absolute — City of St. Louis and St. Louis County have separate assessors, recorders, and permit offices; solds never cross
- TGS premiums do not price Bevo doubles — $30K–$60K appraiser cuts
- Municipality rule in the county — Ferguson ≠ Florissant ≠ Jennings on both solds and leases
- Seller tax bills lie — model reassessment at your price; city files also carry the 1% earnings-tax question for your CPA
Half-mile rule within corridor and jurisdiction only.
Brick and masonry stress test
| Risk | Typical cost | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Tuckpointing (full elevation) | $8–$14/sq ft | Bid by masonry contractor, not GC allowance |
| Parapet rebuild | $6K–$15K | Alley-side walk with binoculars at LOI |
| Box-gutter relining | $4K–$10K | Fails invisibly — check joists below |
| Knob-and-tube rewire | $12K–$22K | Standard on pre-1930 four-squares |
Budget 10%–15% contingency on pre-1940 brick and put masonry in draw one.
Cross-corridor strategy
- Stack doubles in Bevo Mill toward DSCR exits
- Flip four-squares in Tower Grove South for O-O premiums
- Hold SFRs in North County where rent-to-price leads the metro
- One lender relationship — STL hard money up to 90% LTC
Worked example — Bevo double BRRRR
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Acquisition | $92,000 |
| Rehab | $58,000 (masonry + mechanical first) |
| All-in | $150,000 · 87% LTC @ 10.75% IO |
| Rent | $2,145/mo gross |
| Appraisal | $198,000 |
| DSCR refi | 72% LTV |
Detail: Bevo Mill guide.
Worked example — TGS four-square flip
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Acquisition | $168,000 |
| Rehab | $74,000 (rewire + HVAC + finish) |
| All-in | $242,000 |
| Resale | $305,000 |
| Net spread (est.) | ~$22,700 |
Midwest comparison snapshot
| Metro | STL analog |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Historic Northeast | Bevo Mill stack |
| Kansas City Crossroads | Tower Grove South premium |
| Columbus east side | North County yield |
2026 carry reality
Model 8–12 month holds on double value-add at 10%–12% IO. A $150K all-in file at 87% LTC accrues roughly $1,170/mo interest — permit-schedule slippage is the STL-specific carry risk, which is why occupancy inspections are sequenced at rough-in on every corridor above.
All corridor deep-dives
Related: Missouri hard money · KC rankings
St. Louis submission checklist
- Purchase contract 7–14 day close with title review
- Masonry + mechanical scope in GC bid — tuckpointing line on pre-1940 brick
- Three sold comps within corridor and jurisdiction — city stays city, county stays municipal
- Occupancy-permit plan — which office, what checklist, scheduled when
- Entity docs — MO LLC, operating agreement, EIN
- 6–8 months IO reserve on two-family repositions
Sponsor profile match
| Your experience | Start here | Graduate to |
|---|---|---|
| First STL deal | North County SFR or Bevo bungalow under $180K all-in | Bevo double BRRRR |
| KC transplant | Historic Northeast analog = Bevo | TGS premium flip |
| O-O flip specialist | Princeton Heights bungalow | Tower Grove South four-square |
Historic tax credits: the STL-specific edge
No other Midwest flip market pairs this much national-register housing stock with a 25% state rehabilitation credit. On qualifying South City gut rehabs, the Missouri credit — stackable with the 20% federal credit on income-producing property — can convert a marginal pro forma into a strong one. The trade is process: SHPO approval before work begins, standards-compliant scope, and consultant fees. It fits hold-oriented gut renovations far better than quick cosmetic flips, which is why it appears on Tower Grove South and larger multifamily files more than on Bevo bungalows. If the parcel is in a district, run the credit math before you bid the job both ways.
When to skip St. Louis
If your pro forma requires county comps on city files, TGS ARV on Bevo doubles, or a masonry allowance instead of a bid, the deal belongs in a different corridor — not forced into STL math. Submit scenario for corridor-fit review before LOI.
Questions? Submit scenario · (833) 264-7776
Pre-qualify for St. Louis financing · (833) 264-7776
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