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Best U.S. Markets for Fix-and-Flip Returns in Fall 2026
By Jaken Finance Group · Principal, Jaken Finance Group
The U.S. markets with the strongest fix-and-flip returns this fall — ATTOM Q1 2026 gross ROI, what the numbers miss, and how to finance the hold.
Fix-and-flip returns heading into fall 2026 are not a national story. They are a metro story. ATTOM’s Q1 2026 U.S. Home Flipping Report shows the typical U.S. flip at a 25.4% gross return — the first quarterly gain in nearly two years — while several large Texas metros printed single-digit gross margins.
That 25.4% is not take-home profit. It is purchase-to-resale spread before rehab, interest, taxes, and selling costs. Investors who still make money this fall pick the right basis and size the hold for winter. They keep a rental refinance as a real Plan B — not a slogan.
This article uses ATTOM deed data as the primary source, then adds financing math from how we actually underwrite files. For a separate operator ranking by spread, velocity, and lender access, see our top 10 cities to flip houses in 2026.
Key stats at a glance (Q1 2026)
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Typical gross ROI | 25.4% | ATTOM Q1 2026 |
| Prior quarter | 24.7% (lowest since mid-2008) | ATTOM |
| Year-ago gross ROI | 29.6% | ATTOM |
| Typical gross profit | $66,000 (up from $64,300) | ATTOM |
| Year-ago gross profit | $74,172 | ATTOM |
| Homes flipped | 64,348 (8.0% of sales) | ATTOM |
| Median days to flip | 165 (up from 160) | ATTOM |
| Cash purchases | 61.1% of flips | ATTOM |
| Rehab + other costs (veteran estimate) | 20%–33% of ARV | ATTOM methodology |
| Best large-metro gross ROI | Pittsburgh 85.9% | ATTOM |
| Weakest large-metro gross ROI | Austin 2.0% | ATTOM |
| Best $100K–$200K purchase tier | 32% typical gross ROI | ATTOM |
| Sub-$50K purchases | 14% typical loss | ATTOM |
Run the spread on our fix-and-flip calculator before you treat any metro average as your deal.
Gross ROI is not net profit
ATTOM defines a flip as two arms-length sales of the same single-family home or condo within 12 months. Gross profit is resale price minus purchase price. Gross ROI is that profit divided by the original purchase price. Rehab, holding costs, and closing costs are excluded.
ATTOM notes that experienced flippers often spend 20% to 33% of after-repair value on those excluded items. On a $300,000 ARV, that is $60,000 to $99,000 before you count a slow listing. A 25.4% gross return can shrink to a thin net — or a loss — if the scope creeps or the house sits.
For the line items, use average rehab costs, holding costs, and how to calculate ARV. Cap the offer with the 70% rule.
What actually makes a strong flip market
Metro lists go stale. The traits behind this quarter’s winners do not.
Low acquisition basis. ATTOM’s strongest percentage returns clustered on homes bought between $100,000 and $200,000 (32% typical gross ROI). Purchases under $50,000 typically lost 14%. Cheap is not the same as a discount to ARV.
A real spread after rehab. Pittsburgh’s typical flip bought at $110,000 and resold at $204,500 — an $94,500 gross gap on an 85.9% gross ROI, per ATTOM’s metro table. That is not the same number as Pittsburgh’s metro median list price. Mixing those two figures is how syndicated roundups overstate what you need to bring to closing.
Buyer demand for move-in-ready stock. Tight listings help a renovated house sell. They do not help you if you overpay on the buy. Buffalo is the cautionary example: LendingOne’s 2026 market screen found active listings above 2019 levels, yet ATTOM still recorded an 84% gross ROI. Basis and resale gap did the work, not a 2019 inventory headline.
A rental exit that actually cash-flows. If fall buyers pause, you need rent that covers PITIA at a DSCR a lender will fund. That is a hard money to DSCR refinance, not a hope.
Large metros: strongest gross ROI (population over 1 million)
ATTOM’s Q1 2026 ranking for large metros:
| Rank | Metro | Gross ROI | Typical flip buy → resale | Gross profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh, PA | 85.9% | $110,000 → $204,500 | $94,500 |
| 2 | Buffalo, NY | 84.0% | $125,000 → $230,000 | $105,000 |
| 3 | Virginia Beach, VA | 74.9% | (not published in the top-10 table) | — |
| 4 | Baltimore, MD | 65.9% | (not published in the top-10 table) | — |
| 5 | Philadelphia, PA | 62.0% | (not published in the top-10 table) | — |
| — | U.S. typical | 25.4% | $260,000 → $326,000 | $66,000 |
Pittsburgh and Buffalo buy/resale prices come from ATTOM’s Figures Friday table (metros with population over 200,000 and 50+ flips). National typical gross profit is $66,000 (ATTOM; Realtor.com cited $65,981). Quartz, citing the same ATTOM report, put the national median flip purchase at $260,000 — which lines up with a ~$326,000 resale once you add that gross profit.
Financing in these states: Pennsylvania fix-and-flip loans, New York fix-and-flip loans, Virginia fix-and-flip loans, Maryland fix-and-flip loans.
Pittsburgh. Highest large-metro gross ROI. Older stock, a $110,000 typical flip basis, and a resale market that still pays for finished houses. Pennsylvania as a whole led states in ATTOM’s Q1 ROI at 70%, down from 92.9% a year earlier — strong, and compressing (Inman, citing ATTOM).
Buffalo. Second among large metros, and the largest dollar gain in that group ($105,000 gross). Cash bought 78.7% of Buffalo flips in Q1, one of the highest cash shares ATTOM recorded. Winter exterior work stretches timelines. Price that into hold, or the 84% gross number is a mirage.
Virginia Beach, Baltimore, Philadelphia. All more than double the national 25.4% gross ROI. Baltimore and Philadelphia are rowhome markets: block-level variance is the risk. A citywide average will not save you on the wrong street. Pair the buy with sold, renovated comps — not a metro median.
Mid-size metros: higher percentages, thinner buyer pools
ATTOM’s top 10 for metros with population over 200,000 and at least 50 flips in Q1 2026:
| Rank | Metro | Median buy | Median resale | Gross ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartanburg, SC | $118,903 | $255,165 | 114.6% |
| 2 | Flint, MI | $51,316 | $108,842 | 112.1% |
| 3 | Shreveport, LA | $89,165 | $181,950 | 104.1% |
| 4 | Reading, PA | $145,000 | $284,000 | 95.9% |
| 5 | Lancaster, PA | $176,250 | $334,725 | 89.9% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh, PA | $110,000 | $204,500 | 85.9% |
| 7 | Pensacola, FL | $136,500 | $252,950 | 85.3% |
| 8 | Buffalo, NY | $125,000 | $230,000 | 84.0% |
| 9 | Scranton, PA | $92,617 | $170,000 | 83.6% |
| 10 | Peoria, IL | $80,000 | $142,500 | 78.1% |
Source: ATTOM, Top 10 metros by profit margin, Q1 2026.
Scranton belongs on a fall list. The typical flip there bought at $92,617. That is not the ~$222,000 metro home-value figure some roundups label as a median purchase price. LendingOne separately measured Scranton–Wilkes-Barre listings about 46% below December 2019 as of year-end 2025. That inventory gap helps the exit. It does not change the buy price ATTOM recorded.
Flint’s 112.1% gross ROI sits on a $51,316 median purchase. ATTOM also found sub-$50,000 buys lost money nationwide. Ultra-cheap basis can mean unlivable scope, not a bargain. Underwrite the rehab before you celebrate the percentage.
High flip volume is not high profit
After Atlanta, the large metros with the highest share of sales that were flips were Cleveland (12.1%), Dallas (11.9%), Kansas City (11.5%), and Memphis (11.2%). Cleveland is busy. Busy is not the same as a 70%+ gross margin.
Texas shows the split clearly. ATTOM’s weakest large-metro gross ROIs in Q1:
| Metro | Gross ROI |
|---|---|
| Austin, TX | 2.0% |
| Dallas, TX | 4.3% |
| San Antonio, TX | 5.1% |
| Houston, TX | 7.2% |
| Salt Lake City, UT | 9.5% |
Dallas still ranked among the most active large flip markets. Austin printed a 2% gross return — before paint. If you are still chasing 2021 Sun Belt appreciation, the deed data says the spread is gone. Files in Texas need a tighter buy, a lighter scope, or a rental DSCR hold rather than a retail-only exit. Product page: Texas fix-and-flip loans.
How we fact-checked the August roundups
A widely syndicated August 2026 Stacker / PropertyReach piece used the same national ATTOM headlines: 25.4% gross ROI, $66,000 profit, a 165-day hold, and Texas at 2%–7%. It then attached metro “median purchase prices” that do not match ATTOM’s flip purchase medians. KEYT carried that roundup. The national ROI math checks out. Several city price tags do not.
| Claim in circulation | What primary data shows | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Typical U.S. flip 25.4% gross, $66,000, 165 days | ATTOM Q1 2026 | Confirmed |
| Austin / Dallas / Houston gross margins in the 2%–7% band | Austin 2.0%, Dallas 4.3%, Houston 7.2% | Confirmed |
| Pittsburgh 85.9% gross ROI | ATTOM | Confirmed |
| Pittsburgh flip buy ~$234,600 | ATTOM median flip buy $110,000 | Not a flip purchase price |
| Buffalo 84% gross ROI | ATTOM | Confirmed |
| Buffalo flip buy ~$262,600 | ATTOM median flip buy $125,000 | Not a flip purchase price |
| Scranton ~75% ROI on a ~$222,000 buy | ATTOM: 83.6% on a $92,617 buy | ROI in the ballpark; buy price is a home-value mix-up |
| Data sourced to NAR + Realtor.com | ROI tables are ATTOM deed data; Realtor.com covered ATTOM | Misattributed |
| Hartford 66%–73% Q1 ROI / Cleveland 72% / Milwaukee 55%–62% | Not in ATTOM’s Q1 2026 published top lists | Not published here |
Hartford is a real inventory story — LendingOne’s Realtor.com pull put year-end 2025 listings about 73% below December 2019, with a Q3 2025 ATTOM gross ROI of 55.4%. That is older than Q1 2026, and Hartford is not on ATTOM’s latest top-10 flip-margin list. We will not promote a 66%–73% Q1 figure we cannot source.
Cleveland’s verified Q1 stat is flip rate (12.1% of sales among large metros), not a 72% ROI. Ohio fix-and-flip loans still work when the buy is a discount to ARV and rent covers a DSCR exit.
Scope that survives a fall listing
Remodeling magazine’s Cost vs Value Report is the standard recoup table for kitchens, baths, and curb appeal. Year after year, minor kitchen refreshes and exterior items recoup more of their cost than luxury additions. Pools, custom stone, and upscale guts are how you erase a 25% gross spread.
Keep the finish level inside the comps you used for ARV. Over-renovating a $170,000 Scranton resale to a Chicago-suburban spec is how a “high ROI market” becomes a long winter.
Budget the hold like a fall start will become a winter close
165 days is the median completed flip in Q1, not your schedule. A late-August purchase that needs a roof and a kitchen is a January listing in a lot of Northeast and Midwest metros.
On Jaken Finance Group fix-and-flip / hard money terms, interest-only carry is 8.99%–13.5% for 6–12 months, with leverage up to 100% LTC on qualified files and a cap at 75% of ARV. Extra months are not a footnote. They are the offer.
Worked hold stack: see fix-and-flip holding costs. If the listing misses the fall buyer pool, do not wait for the balloon. Refinance into a DSCR rental loan (Jaken Finance Group range 5.75%–10.5%) using in-place or market rent over PITIA.
Connecticut and Wisconsin show up in a lot of “value market” roundups. We finance both — Connecticut fix-and-flip loans and Wisconsin fix-and-flip loans — but we will not invent Q1 ROI for Hartford or Milwaukee that ATTOM did not publish.
How we finance a fall flip
| Piece | Jaken Finance Group range (qualified files) |
|---|---|
| Rate | 8.99%–13.5% interest-only |
| Leverage | Up to 100% of cost; up to 75% of ARV |
| Term | 6–12 months |
| Close | 7–10 business days |
| Rental exit | DSCR 5.75%–10.5%, up to 85% purchase LTV on select files |
Nationwide coverage. Apply at submit a flip or start at what kind of loan do you need. Questions: (833) 264-7776.
Cash still bought 61.1% of Q1 flips. Financed buyers who close in a week can compete with that cash without draining reserves — if the ARV and scope are real.
Bottom line
Fall 2026 is a basis and hold market, not a TV-spread market. ATTOM’s first quarterly ROI uptick in nearly two years is real, and it is still below last year. The metros that work are the ones where you can buy well below renovated comps, finish to the neighborhood, and survive a 165-day-plus clock — with a DSCR refinance already modeled.
Use the tables above as a screen. Underwrite the house.
Sources
Primary data is ATTOM’s Q1 2026 U.S. Home Flipping Report (June 18, 2026). Metro buy and resale prices are from ATTOM’s top-10 profit-margin table. Coverage of the same report: Realtor.com, HousingWire, Inman, and Quartz. Year-end 2025 inventory composites: LendingOne (Zillow ZHVI + Realtor.com listings + Q3 2025 ATTOM; published Feb. 16, 2026). Remodel recoup tables: Remodeling Cost vs Value Report 2025. The KEYT / Stacker / PropertyReach roundup was the topic prompt. Figures above supersede it where they conflict.