This is a planning reference for real estate investors underwriting deals across the greater Chicago area in 2026 — the numbers that belong in a pro forma before you write an offer. It pulls together rehab cost per square foot, ARV spreads by submarket, DSCR bands by neighborhood, and typical rents and price ranges into one place. Use it to sanity-check a deal, not to replace comps and a real scope of work.
The rehab, DSCR, and submarket bands are 2026 planning ranges from market observation and Jaken Finance Group underwriting experience — not appraisals, guarantees, or investment advice. The market snapshot, rent, tax, and rate figures below are cited to their public sources with the period they cover. Underwrite every deal on its own numbers.
2026 market snapshot: the sourced numbers
Start with the public data. Each figure links to its source and is the latest release available in early October 2026.
| Indicator | Latest | Year earlier | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Case-Shiller Chicago home price index | 234.27 (July 2026) | 219.22 (July 2025) | S&P Cotality via FRED |
| FHFA all-transactions index, Chicago-Naperville-Evanston | 296.21 (Q2 2026) | 278.91 (Q2 2025) | FHFA via FRED |
| Cook County median listing price | $350,000 (Sept 2026) | $339,500 (Sept 2025) | Realtor.com via FRED |
| Cook County active listings | 8,021 (Sept 2026) | 9,160 (Sept 2025) | Realtor.com via FRED |
| Cook County median days on market | 35 (Sept 2026) | 38 (Sept 2025) | Realtor.com via FRED |
| Cook County median list price per sq ft | $237 (Sept 2026) | $229 (Sept 2025) | Realtor.com via FRED |
| Chicago metro unemployment rate | 5.2% (Aug 2026) | 4.5% (Aug 2025) | BLS via FRED |
| 30-year fixed mortgage average | 7.28% (week of Oct 1, 2026) | 6.34% | Freddie Mac PMMS |
What the snapshot says:
- Prices are still rising. The Case-Shiller Chicago index gained about 6.9% over the year, and the FHFA index about 6.2%. For comparison, the Case-Shiller Tampa index fell about 0.7% over the same July-to-July period (FRED). Chicago ARVs have held up better than Tampa’s this year.
- Supply is tightening. Cook County active listings fell about 12% from a year earlier, while days on market dropped from 38 to 35. Well-finished flips are meeting less competition.
- Two warning lights. Unemployment is up 0.7 points, and the 30-year rate is nearly a full point higher than a year ago. Both squeeze the owner-occupant buyers who purchase most finished flips. Underwrite ARV on recent sales, not on the price trend continuing.
Collar and value markets for comparison
| County | Median listing price (Sept 2026) | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|
| Will | $409,900 | 35 |
| Lake | $461,000 | 33 |
| Winnebago (Rockford) | $251,225 | 34 |
County medians mix luxury and entry-level stock. They show direction, not the ARV for your block. City-specific detail lives on the Joliet, Waukegan, and Rockford flip pages.
Rehab cost per square foot (2026 planning bands)
Chicago’s building stock is old and masonry-heavy, which pushes rehab costs above sunbelt norms — vintage two-flats and greystones carry system-replacement and tuckpointing line items that newer markets don’t.
| Scope | $/sq ft | Typical inclusions |
|---|---|---|
| Cosmetic refresh | $25–$45 | Paint, flooring, fixtures, light kitchen/bath |
| Mid-level rehab | $45–$90 | Full kitchen + baths, some mechanicals, refinishing |
| Full gut rehab | $100–$200+ | New electrical/plumbing/HVAC, layout, masonry, roof |
| Vintage / landmark premium | +10–25% | Character-appropriate windows, cornice, facade work |
Read these against the Chicago rehab costs per square foot blog and price from an actual scope of work.
Submarket map — flip lane vs. yield lane
| Corridor | Example areas | Basis (2–4 unit) | Primary strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| NW bungalow belt | Portage Park, Irving Park, Jefferson Park | $350K–$550K | Flip + higher-ARV BRRRR |
| North lakefront | Rogers Park, Edgewater, Uptown | $400K–$700K | DSCR hold, condo/deconversion |
| NW/W value-add | Belmont Cragin, Humboldt Park, Avondale | $300K–$550K | Flip + BRRRR |
| SW 2-flat belt | Brighton Park, Little Village, McKinley Park | $250K–$420K | Value-add hold |
| South cash-flow | Chatham, Auburn Gresham, South Shore | $150K–$350K | DSCR yield, voucher |
| South appreciation | Woodlawn, Bronzeville, Hyde Park | $250K–$500K | BRRRR + appreciation |
| Inner-ring suburbs | Berwyn, Cicero, Oak Park | $250K–$450K | RLTO-free hold + flip |
| Collar / value | Waukegan, Aurora, Joliet, Rockford | $110K–$400K | Yield + heavy rehab |
Neighborhood-level pages: Logan Square, Pilsen, South Shore, Woodlawn DSCR, Bronzeville DSCR, Chatham DSCR.
DSCR bands by submarket (renovated 2–4 unit, honest tax)
The single most important Chicago underwriting fact: Cook County’s tax load pushes single-family DSCR down and rewards multi-unit density. These bands assume renovated stock, market or voucher rent, and taxes stress-tested for reassessment.
| Submarket | Typical DSCR (renovated 2–4 unit) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Premium North Side | 0.95–1.15 | Appreciation-led; often needs rate buydown or more down |
| North lakefront | 1.00–1.18 | Rent depth offsets basis |
| SW 2-flat belt | 1.10–1.28 | Dense units, moderate basis |
| South cash-flow | 1.20–1.45 | Low basis; voucher can lift higher |
| Inner-ring suburbs (RLTO-free) | 1.10–1.30 | Lower compliance opex |
| Collar / value (e.g., Waukegan) | 1.15–1.40 | Watch high effective tax rates |
Model any scenario on the DSCR calculator; the mechanics live on the DSCR loans Chicago hub.
HUD rent benchmarks by Chicago ZIP (FY 2026)
HUD’s Small Area Fair Market Rents give a published, ZIP-level rent check. They also set voucher payment standards for many landlords. These FY 2026 figures come from HUD’s Chicago-Joliet-Naperville FMR documentation.
| ZIP (mainly covers) | 2-bed | 3-bed | 4-bed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60647 (Logan Square) | $2,220 | $2,860 | $3,310 |
| 60641 (Portage Park) | $1,720 | $2,210 | $2,560 |
| 60619 (Chatham) | $1,450 | $1,870 | $2,160 |
| 60629 (Chicago Lawn, West Lawn) | $1,360 | $1,750 | $2,030 |
| 60623 (Little Village) | $1,320 | $1,700 | $1,970 |
| 60632 (Brighton Park) | $1,300 | $1,670 | $1,940 |
| 60617 (South Chicago, East Side) | $1,310 | $1,690 | $1,950 |
If your pro forma rent beats both leased comps and the HUD number, recheck it. If it sits below the HUD number in a voucher-heavy ZIP, a documented voucher tenancy may lift coverage.
Worked DSCR example: two-flat at two rates
Illustration only. Taxes and insurance are assumptions; use the parcel’s real bill and a carrier quote.
- Property: two-flat in 60629, two three-bed units, $380,000 value
- Rent: 2 × $1,750 HUD three-bed benchmark = $3,500 a month
- Loan: 75% LTV = $285,000, 30-year amortization
- Assumed taxes and insurance: $6,500 and $2,400 a year
| Rate | Principal and interest | PITIA | DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.75% | $1,849 | $2,590 | about 1.35 |
| 7.75% | $2,042 | $2,783 | about 1.26 |
A full point of rate costs about 0.09 of coverage on this file. It still clears comfortably because two rents carry one tax bill, which is the two-flat advantage in one table.
Why two- to four-flats beat single-family in Chicago
Combined rent from multiple units grows the DSCR numerator faster than the PITIA denominator — so on a Cook County tax bill that sinks single-family coverage, a two- or three-flat often clears. This is the structural reason Chicago’s signature flat buildings dominate investor activity. The full head-to-head math is in the 2–4 flat vs. single-family investor guide and the two-flat & three-flat financing guide.
Cost and friction lines investors underestimate
| Line | Where it hits | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Property tax + reassessment | Every year; stress +15% | Cook County tax guide |
| Transfer tax stack (~1.20%) | At each closing | Chicago transfer tax guide |
| RLTO compliance | $150–$220/door/yr in the city | RLTO guide |
| Permits + DOB timeline | Rehab schedule | Permits & building code guide |
| Winter weather contingency | 30–45 days on exterior work | Draw scheduling |
Transfer tax, line by line
The ~1.20% stack above comes from four published rates. The City of Chicago charges $3.75 per $500 of transfer price plus a $1.50 per $500 supplemental tax for the CTA, per the city Department of Finance. Illinois adds 50 cents per $500 (35 ILCS 200/31-10), and the county tax is 25 cents per $500 (55 ILCS 5/5-1031).
Together that is $6.00 per $500, or 1.20%. On a $450,000 two-flat sale inside the city, the total is $5,400. Suburban sales skip the two city taxes but may face a municipal stamp, so ask title for the local figure.
Cook County reassessment in 2026
Cook County reassesses on a three-year cycle by township. In 2026, the south and west suburbs are being reassessed, per the Cook County Assessor. The City of Chicago and the north suburbs change this year only for things like new construction or property splits.
For a deal in a south or west suburban township, expect a new assessment notice this year. Hold the appeal deadline on your calendar, and stress the tax line before a DSCR refinance.
Financing benchmarks (Jaken Finance Group, 2026)
- Fix and flip / bridge: 8.99%–13.5% interest-only, up to 100% LTC, up to 75% ARV, close in 7–10 business days
- DSCR: 5.75%–10.5%, up to 85% LTV purchase / 80% cash-out in select markets, 30- or 40-year and ARM options
- Credit: no minimum FICO on select programs — collateral-first underwriting
Full terms: fix-and-flip loans Chicago · DSCR loans Chicago · hard money lenders Chicago.
Methodology and updates
These bands are built from three inputs: observed Chicago-area transaction and rent patterns, Jaken Finance Group’s own underwriting across city and collar-county deals, and the neighborhood-level detail on our Chicago hub pages. Cross-check any parcel’s assessment and tax history at the Cook County Assessor. They are planning ranges, deliberately wide, meant to catch a deal that’s badly mispriced — not to set an appraisal. Local blocks vary enormously in Chicago; a single street can span two of these bands. We refresh the report as market conditions and our deal flow shift; always confirm against current comps, actual rents, and the specific parcel’s tax bill.
How to use this report
- Pull your subject’s square footage and pick a rehab band
- Locate the submarket lane — flip vs. yield
- Sanity-check your projected DSCR against the band before assuming an exit
- Add the friction lines (tax, transfer, RLTO, permits) to the model
- Verify everything against real comps, rents, and the actual tax bill
Related resources
- Best Chicago neighborhoods for flipping 2026
- How to start flipping houses in Chicago
- Chicago BRRRR strategy guide
- Illinois real estate market report Q1 2026
- Cook County property tax investor guide
- Illinois hard money & DSCR rate report
- Illinois hard money law: usury, PLPA & licensing
Have a specific Chicago deal to run against these numbers? Get a scenario reviewed or call (833) 264-7776.